According to a model for homeland security risk analysis that is currently under consideration for use in supporting resource allocation decisions, the formula for the risk associated with a specified scenario is as follows:
Risk = C * L(S|A) * L(A) (Equation 1)
where L(A) is the likelihood of an attack being attempted, L(S|A) is the likelihood of adversary success given attack, C is the consequences following a successful attack, and the total risk is obtained by summing the results of Equation 1 for all relevant scenarios. At first glance, it would appear to the casual reader that this model is simply an implementation of risk measured in terms of expected loss, with the exception of the non-standard representation of L(.) for expressing the probability of the event contained within the parenthesis… Click to Continue Reading...
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Tags: methodologies · risk analysis · worst reasonable consequence
Tags: infrastructure protection · naval postgraduate school · risk analysis
For those of you doing research into anything that requires a literature review, it pays to check out the types of work your Chinese research counterparts have published on in the Chinese academic literature. There are two really good full-text databases out there for Chinese academic journals:
- Wanfang Data: According to the Wanfang data website, “as an affiliate of Chinese Ministry of Science & Technology, Wanfang Data has been the leading information provider in China since 1950s. With a wide range of database resources and value-added services, Wanfang Data has become a gateway to understand Chinese culture, medicine, business, science, etc.” I personnally find this particular database to be very user friendly and English-language friendly. The problem is that I don’t know of any scholarly institution with access…
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Tags: academic papers · chinese papers · international research · journals · natural hazards · risk analysis · risk philosophy · terrorism
What is an “emerging threat”? Or even more generally speaking, what is a “threat” in the first place?
There are numerous definitions proposed and used for the word “threat” and its synonym “hazard”, and I leave it to readers of this blog (and myself) to explore the myriad definitions for such terms as these described in the SARMAPedia just to see what I mean (this website is part of the Security Analysis and Risk Management Association, or SARMA, initiative to develop a common lexicon; participation is encouraged).
For simplicity, let’s go with the following simple and generic definition of threat: a threat is a source of potential harm. Of course whether or not something is harmful is in the eye of the beholder, but for… Click to Continue Reading...
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Tags: academic papers · emerging threats · risk analysis · scenarios · speculative threats · surprise · terrorism
Security Risk Professional’s Bookshelf, Volume 1, Number 1
Citation: Purpura, P. P. (2007). Terrorism and Homeland Security: An Introduction with Applications. Butterworth-Heinemann (Elsevier). ISBN: 978-0-7506-7843-8.
Here we have what appears to be an undergraduate text centered on this idea of homeland security. It seems that the target readership for this book are HLS novices, so from that point of view the text covers a nice swath of homeland security issues and recent milestones (legislation, strategies, etc.). But I think the book would come off as being quite lame to those in the homeland security community who know a thing or two about what it is, what is should be, and where it is (really) headed. This book is truly an introductory text aimed at exposing… Click to Continue Reading...
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Tags: book reviews · risk books · security risk professional's bookshelf
