Risk, Uncertainty and Everything Else

To follow up on my previous post regarding the work of Peter Sandman, I can’t help but advertise his short, yet important article entitled “Risk Words You Can’t Use” published in the August 2005 issue of The Synergist.  While this article is a quick read, I will distill it down further and caveat some with my personal experience:

• Conservative: To risk people, conservative means an overestimate of risk.  To laypeople, a “conservative” estimate is a low estimate.  So whereas a risk person would use conservative to overstate the risk, a layperson (or perhaps decision maker) may interpret the message to be an understatement of risk, and thereby think that the risk could be much worse.  Now, engineers and scientists understand what is meant by the

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For those unfamiliar with this description of risk, check out the website maintained by Peter Sandman.  Dr. Sandman is a scholar on risk communication and risk perception, and has made a name for himself via the concept “Risk = Hazard + Outrage.”  He has published some very interesting things, one of which can be found on my list of 100 books to review.  A selection of his works is available electronically on his curriculum vitae.

Back to the formula “Risk = Hazard + Outrage”…  This is not a mathematical formula in any strict sense of the word.  Rather it is conceptual in nature, where the “risk” is defined by the objective nature of the “hazard” and augmented by the “outrage” felt by the individuals exposed…

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