According to a model for homeland security risk analysis that is currently under consideration for use in supporting resource allocation decisions, the formula for the risk associated with a specified scenario is as follows:
Risk = C * L(S|A) * L(A) (Equation 1)
where L(A) is the likelihood of an attack being attempted, L(S|A) is the likelihood of adversary success given attack, C is the consequences following a successful attack, and the total risk is obtained by summing the results of Equation 1 for all relevant scenarios. At first glance, it would appear to the casual reader that this model is simply an implementation of risk measured in terms of expected loss, with the exception of the non-standard representation of L(.) for expressing the probability of the event contained within the parenthesis… Click to Continue Reading...
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Tags: methodologies · risk analysis · worst reasonable consequence
For those of you doing research into anything that requires a literature review, it pays to check out the types of work your Chinese research counterparts have published on in the Chinese academic literature. There are two really good full-text databases out there for Chinese academic journals:
- Wanfang Data: According to the Wanfang data website, “as an affiliate of Chinese Ministry of Science & Technology, Wanfang Data has been the leading information provider in China since 1950s. With a wide range of database resources and value-added services, Wanfang Data has become a gateway to understand Chinese culture, medicine, business, science, etc.” I personnally find this particular database to be very user friendly and English-language friendly. The problem is that I don’t know of any scholarly institution with access…
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Tags: academic papers · chinese papers · international research · journals · natural hazards · risk analysis · risk philosophy · terrorism
