Risk, Uncertainty and Everything Else

A blog focused on the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to security problems

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Six Papers on Six Different “Emerging” Terrorist Threats

May 28th, 2008 · 3 Comments

What is an “emerging threat”? Or even more generally speaking, what is a “threat” in the first place?

There are numerous definitions proposed and used for the word “threat” and its synonym “hazard”, and I leave it to readers of this blog (and myself) to explore the myriad definitions for such terms as these described in the SARMAPedia just to see what I mean (this website is part of the Security Analysis and Risk Management Association, or SARMA, initiative to develop a common lexicon; participation is encouraged).

For simplicity, let’s go with the following simple and generic definition of threat: a threat is a source of potential harm. Of course whether or not something is harmful is in the eye of the beholder, but for…

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Tags: academic papers · emerging threats · risk analysis · scenarios · speculative threats · surprise · terrorism