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	<title>Risk, Uncertainty and Everything Else</title>
	<atom:link href="http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog</link>
	<description>A blog focused on the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to security problems</description>
	<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:26:01 +0000</pubDate>
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			<item>
		<title>This blog has moved!!!</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/07/30/this-blog-has-moved/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/07/30/this-blog-has-moved/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:24:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=46</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I admit I am new to this web 2.0 game.  I also admit that it is a little odd to have a URL that begins with my first name.  So, in the past two months I have been learning as much as I can about blogs and wikis and the like, and decided to create [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/07/30/this-blog-has-moved/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Fallacy of the “Worst Reasonable Case”: A Preemptive Critique</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/08/the-fallacy-of-the-%e2%80%9cworst-reasonable-case%e2%80%9d-a-preemptive-critique/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/08/the-fallacy-of-the-%e2%80%9cworst-reasonable-case%e2%80%9d-a-preemptive-critique/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Jun 2008 12:22:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[methodologies]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk analysis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[worst reasonable consequence]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[probability]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[worst reasonable case]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/08/the-fallacy-of-the-%e2%80%9cworst-reasonable-case%e2%80%9d-a-preemptive-critique/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to a model for homeland security risk analysis that is currently under consideration for use in supporting resource allocation decisions, the formula for the risk associated with a specified scenario is as follows:
Risk = C * L(S&#124;A) * L(A)  (Equation 1)
where L(A) is the likelihood of an attack being attempted, L(S&#124;A) is the likelihood [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/08/the-fallacy-of-the-%e2%80%9cworst-reasonable-case%e2%80%9d-a-preemptive-critique/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools Workshop</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/05/critical-infrastructure-protection-metrics-and-tools-workshop/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/05/critical-infrastructure-protection-metrics-and-tools-workshop/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jun 2008 23:23:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[infrastructure protection]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[naval postgraduate school]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk analysis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[conference]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=38</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From 5-7 June 2008, I will be attending the "<a href="http://www.chds.us/?conferences/cip_jun08" target="_blank">Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools</a>" workshop sponsored by <a href="http://www.chds.us" target="_blank">The Center for Homeland Defense and Security</a>, <a href="http://www.nps.edu" target="_blank">Naval Postgraduate School</a>, in Monterey, CA.

<a href="http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/wbcrest.gif"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-39" title="NPS Crest" src="http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/wbcrest.gif" alt="" width="138" height="100" /></a>

The agenda for this conference is as follows...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/05/critical-infrastructure-protection-metrics-and-tools-workshop/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Audiobooks for the Risk Professional Taking a Summer Road Trip</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/04/audiobooks-for-the-risk-professional-taking-a-summer-road-trip/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/04/audiobooks-for-the-risk-professional-taking-a-summer-road-trip/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jun 2008 00:39:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[book reviews]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[security risk professional's bookshelf]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[audio books]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=37</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Lately I have been doing a lot of traveling between State College, PA and Washington, DC for meetings and such.  To pass the 3.5-hours minimum driving time each way, I, like many others listen to audiobooks on subjects that excite me.  The following is a list of titles for good audiobooks I listened to that [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/04/audiobooks-for-the-risk-professional-taking-a-summer-road-trip/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Words Thou Shall Be Careful to Use in Risk (and Analytic) Communication</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/03/words-thou-shall-be-careful-to-use-in-risk-communication/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/03/words-thou-shall-be-careful-to-use-in-risk-communication/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 15:48:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Sandman]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[language]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk analysis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk communication]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk perception]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[words of risk]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[anecdotal]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[bias]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[confidence]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[conservative]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[likely]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[possible]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[probability]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[safe]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[secure]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[significant]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=35</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To follow up on my previous post regarding the work of Peter Sandman, I can&#8217;t help but advertise his short, yet important article entitled &#8220;Risk Words You Can&#8217;t Use&#8221; published in the August 2005 issue of The Synergist.  While this article is a quick read, I will distill it down further and caveat some with [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/03/words-thou-shall-be-careful-to-use-in-risk-communication/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Risk Communication and Risk Perception: Risk as Hazard + Outrage (a la Peter Sandman)</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/03/risk-communication-and-perception-risk-as-hazard-outrage-a-la-peter-sandman/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/03/risk-communication-and-perception-risk-as-hazard-outrage-a-la-peter-sandman/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 14:28:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Sandman]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[academic papers]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk analysis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk communication]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk perception]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[hazard + outrage]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=34</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For those unfamiliar with this description of risk, check out the website maintained by Peter Sandman.  Dr. Sandman is a scholar on risk communication and risk perception, and has made a name for himself via the concept &#8220;Risk = Hazard + Outrage.&#8221;  He has published some very interesting things, one of which can be found [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/06/03/risk-communication-and-perception-risk-as-hazard-outrage-a-la-peter-sandman/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Chinese Terrorism Risk Research</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/31/chinese-terrorism-risk-research/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/31/chinese-terrorism-risk-research/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jun 2008 03:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[academic papers]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[chinese papers]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[international research]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[journals]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[natural hazards]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk analysis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk philosophy]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[terrorism]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[abstracts]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[chinese]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[methodologies]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=25</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For those of you doing research into anything that requires a literature review, it pays to check out the types of work your Chinese research counterparts have published on in the Chinese academic literature.  There are two really good full-text databases out there for Chinese academic journals:
<ul>
	<li><a href="http://www.wanfangdata.com/" target="_blank">Wanfang Data</a>: According to the Wanfang data website, "as an affiliate of Chinese Ministry of Science &#038; Technology, Wanfang Data has been the leading information provider in China since 1950s. With a wide range of database resources and value-added services, Wanfang Data has become a gateway to understand Chinese culture, medicine, business, science, etc."  I personnally find this particular database to be very user friendly and English-language friendly.  The problem is that I don't know of any scholarly institution with access...</li></ul>]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/31/chinese-terrorism-risk-research/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Proceedings Available: 2nd National Conference on Security Analysis &#038; Risk Management</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/31/proceedings-available-2nd-national-conference-on-security-analysis-risk-management/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/31/proceedings-available-2nd-national-conference-on-security-analysis-risk-management/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jun 2008 00:58:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[SARMA]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[commentary]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk management]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[security risk analysis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[conference]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[second national conference]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[security analysis and risk management association]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=24</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Security Analysis and Risk Management Association (SARMA) just posted some presentations from their most recent conference (the 2nd National Conference on Security Analysis and Risk Management) on their website.  The titles of the available briefings as of 5/31/08 are:

Charles Davis and Lisa Bendixen on &#8221;Implementation of the NIPP and Sector Specific Plans.&#8221;  Ms. Bendixen presented this [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/31/proceedings-available-2nd-national-conference-on-security-analysis-risk-management/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Six Papers on Six Different “Emerging” Terrorist Threats</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/28/six-papers-on-six-different-%e2%80%9cemerging%e2%80%9d-terrorist-threats/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/28/six-papers-on-six-different-%e2%80%9cemerging%e2%80%9d-terrorist-threats/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2008 18:02:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[academic papers]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[emerging threats]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk analysis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[scenarios]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[speculative threats]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[surprise]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[terrorism]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[threats]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=23</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What is an &#8220;emerging threat&#8221;? Or even more generally speaking, what is a &#8220;threat&#8221; in the first place?
There are numerous definitions proposed and used for the word &#8220;threat&#8221; and its synonym &#8220;hazard&#8221;, and I leave it to readers of this blog (and myself) to explore the myriad definitions for such terms as these described in [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/28/six-papers-on-six-different-%e2%80%9cemerging%e2%80%9d-terrorist-threats/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Review: Terrorism and Homeland Security: An Introduction with Applications</title>
		<link>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/28/review-terrorism-and-homeland-securuty-an-introduction-with-applications/</link>
		<comments>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/28/review-terrorism-and-homeland-securuty-an-introduction-with-applications/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2008 05:43:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Will McGill</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[book reviews]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk books]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[security risk professional's bookshelf]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[risk analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/?p=22</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Security Risk Professional&#8217;s Bookshelf, Volume 1, Number 1
Citation: Purpura, P. P. (2007). Terrorism and Homeland Security: An Introduction with Applications.  Butterworth-Heinemann (Elsevier).  ISBN: 978-0-7506-7843-8.
Here we have what appears to be an undergraduate text centered on this idea of homeland security.  It seems that the target readership for this book are HLS novices, so from that point [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://william.professormcgill.com/blog/2008/05/28/review-terrorism-and-homeland-securuty-an-introduction-with-applications/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
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