According to a model for homeland security risk analysis that is currently under consideration for use in supporting resource allocation decisions, the formula for the risk associated with a specified scenario is as follows:
Risk = C * L(S|A) * L(A) (Equation 1)
where L(A) is the likelihood of an attack being attempted, L(S|A) is the likelihood of adversary success given attack, C is the consequences following a successful attack, and the total risk is obtained by summing the results of Equation 1 for all relevant scenarios. At first glance, it would appear to the casual reader that this model is simply an implementation of risk measured in terms of expected loss, with the exception of the non-standard representation of L(.) for expressing the probability of the event contained within the parenthesis… Click to Continue Reading...